Coordinateurs du projet
Context
The EMA project simulates electricity scenarios in France based on assumptions regarding the political and technological objectives set out in the Energy Transition and Green Growth Act (LTECV, 2015; PPE, 2020). More specifically, it focuses on the large-scale integration of fixed and floating offshore wind power into the electricity mix and its impact on the French market. The tool developed is a dispatch model for programmable and intermittent generators, which reproduces the functioning of the hourly electricity market over a year (source: RTE), according to the order of merit of marginal production costs.
The model addresses the issue of order merit for the temporary curtailment of renewable energies, which in 2035/2050 will experience a massive influx, with occasional surpluses relative to demand. The curtailment criteria tested are based in particular on investment costs, the type of natural input, the capacity factor, and the contribution to total hourly electricity production. The database incorporates the three offshore wind regimes in mainland France in order to calculate the complementarity of the resource and the resulting firm capacity, with significant regional disaggregation.
Scientific breakthroughs and innovation
The EMA project opens up the field of applied research focusing on 1) the technological composition of the future French energy mix; and 2) the appeal of power plants on the electricity market. The economic component focuses on analyzing the electricity market in the event of a temporary supply surplus, when demand and export and storage capacity are saturated. Electricity prices are set according to the principle of economic precedence, while excess technologies are removed from the market according to a decommissioning curve based on the economic impact of externalities in terms of local congestion and pressure on must-run power plants. In particular, during periods of low demand and high wind power generation, it is necessary to respect the minimum load thresholds below which base load power plants no longer operate correctly (combined cycle gas turbines, cogeneration plants, or nuclear reactors).
Expected technical and economic impact
Technological focus: Fixed offshore wind
The project simulates the integration of all energy sources mentioned in the Energy Transition Act relating to the electricity mix, and specifically analyzes the energy potential of offshore wind. Hourly offshore wind energy inputs are documented in order to provide a detailed and realistic description of the potential output of offshore wind farms to be installed in France by 2035. The three wind regimes – the Channel-North Sea coast, the Atlantic coast, and the Mediterranean area – are monitored in order to determine the firm capacity obtained on an hourly basis and the variability index.
Economics
The economics component is prioritized due to technological interaction at the national level and the electricity mix, in order to reproduce the functioning of the electricity market in terms of hourly production and consumption volumes. Market constraints, demand and cross-border export-import capacities are added to the technological constraints of upward and downward adjustments of generators in load following mode, in order to estimate the volumes of electricity that will subsequently be subject to contracting and remuneration of energy operators.
Demonstrator
SSEF Simulator – French Electricity System Scenario Modeling
The simulation tool is a model developed in Excel/VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). It consists of a rich database of initial data, which, following the launch of the electricity market simulation program, produces hourly outputs by technology (11 types of generators, two types of storage). The inputs describe the installed capacity at the start of a simulation year, the hourly capacity factors of technologies with fatal inputs (hydro, onshore and offshore wind, solar), operating constraints (ramping, minimum threshold), export-import interconnections, hourly demand profile, loss rate, carbon price per ton, and reference year. The outputs calculate the electricity production of each technology every hour (8,760 steps), export-import flows, CO2 emissions, hourly supply curtailment, and spot supply shortages. The electricity market operates by stacking technologies under the constraints of supply and demand balance, power plant operation, and natural input availability.
The simulator is aimed at a wide audience, including energy operators, researchers, students, policymakers, etc. In principle, thanks to an intuitive interface, any user can launch the model and test predefined scenarios (RTE 2035 Ampère et Watt, or Ademe 2050), and can also build their own scenarios in terms of installed production, storage, exchange, and demand capacities. The simulator describes the instructions for use, while a more detailed document presents the model’s assumptions, formalization principles, and analysis of the results.
Results
The simulation results show that with renewable energy accounting for more than 50% of the mix, the national electricity grid becomes unstable, with significant excess supply and hourly peaks of electricity supply shortages. In addition, the development of renewable energy in the mix leads to the grid relying more on cross-border exchanges. In this context, grid stability requires greater flexibility and necessitates the installation and use of batteries.
Perspectives
Initially, the tool will be tested by energy operators and stakeholders in order to improve understanding of the model and use of the tool. The publication of the results in specialist scientific journals is part of the medium-term outlook.
In the longer term, the collaboration between the two laboratories, LEMNA and LHEEA, on the issue of integrating offshore wind power into the French energy mix aims to seize opportunities for academic and industrial work on energy storage, using hydrogen or batteries, from a technical, analytical, and economic evaluation perspective. The geographical scope could also be extended to other partners through international collaboration on a European project covering, in particular, technical and economic applications on the Atlantic coast and in the North Sea.