Coordinateurs du projet
Context
In deterministic approaches to geotechnical engineering, the average values of input parameters are used without taking into account the uncertainties of these parameters and without considering the spatial correlation structure of soil properties. In contrast, probabilistic approaches that integrate the spatial variability of soil parameters into a deterministic calculation model allow for a better estimation of the reliability of our structure. These methods make it possible to determine the response of the system under study in the form of a distribution law and thus to know not only the average response of the system under study, but also the uncertainty associated with this output. It is even possible to determine the probability of failure for a fixed acceptable threshold of the output variable.
In this project, we are interested in performing a probabilistic analysis for wind turbine foundations, taking into account the three-dimensional spatial variability of soil properties and the variability of the load applied to these structures.
Scientific breakthroughs and innovation
The deterministic study of wind turbine foundations requires three-dimensional (3D) analysis due to the complex type of loading applied to the foundation (caused by wind and waves). However, deterministic 3D problems are known to be very computationally intensive. This presents a major obstacle to the use of classical probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo. On the other hand, taking 3D spatial variability into account in probabilistic analysis significantly increases the number of calls to the deterministic code.
The objective of this project is to provide a reliable and efficient methodology for the propagation of uncertainties in these complex case studies. This makes it possible to obtain the PDF (Probability Density Function) of the response of the system under study as well as the probability of ruin with respect to a fixed threshold for this response, within a reasonable calculation time. Current probabilistic methods do not allow for a rigorous probabilistic assessment due to the use of the Monte Carlo method with a small number of simulations, resulting in a high coefficient of variation in the probability of failure.
Expected technical and economic impact
The analysis and dimensioning of offshore structures are generally carried out within a deterministic framework. However, the degree of uncertainty associated with loading (waves, wind, etc.) on the one hand, and seabed properties on the other, makes it very important to take into account the variability of these input parameters. The objective of this project is to optimize the design of offshore structures by taking into account the spatial variability of soil properties and the variability of the loads applied to these structures. We are particularly interested in wind turbine foundations. We plan to transfer the methods and tools developed in this project to companies, particularly design offices working in the MRE sector.
Demonstrator
Development of digital tools for analyzing offshore wind turbine foundations that can be used by companies and design offices working in the MRE sector.
Results
Objectives:
This project focuses on two areas: (i) the development of effective three-dimensional deterministic models for offshore wind turbine foundations subjected to axial and lateral loads, and (ii) the development of probabilistic models to calculate the probability of failure of offshore foundations, taking into account the three-dimensional spatial variability of soil properties.
Methodologies adopted:
– For the development of mechanical models, a large-diameter monopile offshore foundation was modeled using Abaqus finite element software. Two types of modeling were considered in the mechanical model: a “wished in place” model and a more sophisticated model that takes into account the foundation installation process. The latter model uses the coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian approach implemented in the Abaqus software.
- For probabilistic analyses, three effective probabilistic methods based on the meta-model Kriging technique were developed in this work: GSAS, AK-MCSm, and AK-MCSd. The GSAS method combines Kriging with global sensitivity analysis, with the aim of providing better meta-model enrichment compared to the conventional Kriging approach. The AK-MCSm approach uses multi-point enrichment, which is very useful when computer facilities capable of parallel computing are available. Finally, the AK-MCSd approach uses the dependency between Krigeage predictions and reduces computation time compared to the conventional Krigeage approach.
The results from the various simulations are as follows:
- For the determination of the ultimate vertical bearing capacity, the results obtained using the numerical approach in Abaqus and those obtained using the API approach are consistent. The contribution of the strength of the monopile shaft and base to the total strength of the monopile has been determined. The results showed a major contribution of 60-80% for the shaft and a contribution of 20-40% for the base. In addition, it was noted that the shaft reaches failure first. It was shown that the soil inside the monopile remains integral with the monopile when the latter is loaded. The bearing capacity of the monopile is therefore calculated as the sum of the resistance of the shaft and that of the base of the monopile (soil + ring). This is in line with API recommendations.
- The results for the large-diameter monopile subjected to lateral loading showed that the monopile undergoes rigid rotational movement around a point located around the lower third of the embedded length of the monopile. The results from modeling the monopile installation process in sand showed that the plugging phenomenon increases with decreasing monopile diameter, increasing sand density, and increasing installation force. For large-diameter monopiles, the plugging phenomenon was found to be unlikely. In addition, the results showed that the stress state around the monopile is significantly altered by the installation of the monopile. This change could have a significant effect on the response of the monopile.
- With regard to the probabilistic approaches developed, these methods have been shown to be highly efficient in terms of computation time compared to the classic Monte Carlo probabilistic approach and classic probabilistic methods based on kriging. The AK-MCSm method has proven to be the most efficient in terms of computing time. However, it requires the availability of computer facilities capable of parallel computing. AK-MCSd has proven to be more relevant than the GSAS approach because it is based on a more efficient enrichment methodology in terms of computing time.With regard to the probabilistic approaches developed, these methods have been shown to be highly efficient in terms of computation time compared to the classic Monte Carlo probabilistic approach and classic probabilistic methods based on kriging. The AK-MCSm method has proven to be the most efficient in terms of computing time. However, it requires the availability of computer facilities capable of parallel computing. AK-MCSd has proven to be more relevant than the GSAS approach because it is based on a more efficient enrichment methodology in terms of computing time. Furthermore, it has been shown that the effect of 1-D spatial variability in the vertical direction has a significant influence on the probability of failure as long as the vertical autocorrelation distance is less than the length of the monopile. In addition, it has been shown that the effect of horizontal spatial variability appears as soon as the horizontal autocorrelation distance becomes less than 2.5 D, where D is the diameter of the monopile. In the case of three-dimensional soil variability, the use of a conventional random field discretization method (e.g., EOLE) leads to a memory problem. To solve this problem, the Turning Band Method (TBM) has been proposed. This method has proven to be very effective for discretizing a three-dimensional random field with very short autocorrelation distances (i.e., in the case of highly heterogeneous soil). However, this method has a drawback related to the large number of random variables it requires to represent a random field. This hinders its combination with a Kriging-based approach, which can only handle a limited number of random variables.
Figure: Effect of spatial variability on the probability of failure
PRESENTATION OF THE PROJECT AT THE WEAMEC SEMINAR “GEOTECHNICAL & GEOPHYSICAL FOR MRE APPLICATIONS”
https://youtu.be/5oNVX-SvAT0
Publications and presentations produced
Following conferences:
- El Haj A-K., Soubra A-H., Fajoui J., Al-Bittar T. «Probabilistic model of an offshore monopile foundation taking into account the soil spatial variability», Proceedings of the 54th ESReDA Seminar, Nantes, France, April 25-26, 2018.
- El Haj A-K., Soubra A-H., Al-Bittar T. «Probabilistic analysis of a strip footing resting on a spatially varying soil using Kriging and global sensitivity analysis», 19th working conference of the IFIP Working Group 7.5 on Reliability and Optimization of Structural Systems, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, June 26-29, 2018.
- Abdul-Hamid Soubra, “Numerical modelling of offshore anchors for floating structures “, French-American Innovation Day (FAID), March 18 & 19th 2019
- El Haj A-K., Soubra A-H., «Probabilistic analysis of an offshore monopile foundation using Kriging with multipoint enrichment ». 13th international Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering-ICAPS13, May 26-30, 2019
- El Haj A-K., Soubra A-H. (2019) «Improved Kriging-based approach for the probabilistic analysis of a large diameter monopile in a spatially varying soil», 7th International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety and Risk (ISGSR), Taipei, Taiwan, December 11-13
- View
- El Haj A-K. (Nantes University), Soubra A-H. (Nantes University), & Al-Bittar T. (Lebanese University) (2019) “Probabilistic analysis of strip footings based on enhanced Kriging metamodeling”, Int J Numer Anal Methods Geomech. 2019;1–20.
In journals :
- El Haj A-K., Soubra A-H., Fajoui J. «Probabilistic analysis of an offshore monopile foundation taking into account the soil spatial variability». Computers and Geotechnics, Février 2019
- El Haj A-K., Soubra A-H., Al-bittar, T. (2019) «Probabilistic analysis of strip footings based on enhanced Kriging metamodeling». International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics, 43(17), 2667-2686.
- El Haj A-K., Soubra A-H. (2019) «Efficient estimation of the failure probability of a large diameter monopile in a spatially varying soil». Computers and Geotechnics, 121.
- El Haj A-K., Soubra A-H. (2020) «Improved active learning probabilisitc approach for the computation of failure probability», Structural Safety
Thesis
- “Enhanced Kriging-based approaches for the probabilistic analysis of a large diameter offshore monopile in a spatially varying soil” menée dans le cadre du projet ” – Soutenance le 19 novembre 2019. More information